By: Dr Zahid Ayub

The following short-term solution was sent to the movers and shakers in the Pakistan Government. I thought I would share it with the general public too. Pakistan’s current power shortage is approximately 3,000 MW. To achieve this demand on a short-term basis, I recommend installation of mobile trailer or container-based generators. These generators could be diesel or gas powered depending upon the availability of the type of fuel at hand. These units are highly efficient. I strongly discourage the installation of conventional “used” land-based rental power plants that are being discussed in the media. Firstly, the efficiency issue is a factor, secondly they will take much longer time to be commissioned; however, the country’s immediate problem is fight against time, and thirdly, what do you do with these white elephants after your new thermal/hydel power stations are commissioned within 3-5 years (hopefully!!).

The mobile units come with a maximum power generation of 18 MW each in diesel and up to 80 MW each in natural gas. Various capacity generators could be installed as per the demand requirement; say, in Karachi you may need only 20 MW capacity generators whereas in Toba Tek Singh smaller capacity units would suffice the requirement. This has to be worked out carefully and diligently through energy management experts A mix of 20MW, 15 MW and 10 MW generators would cover the entire spectrum of the country’s energy distribution. Based on these capacities the projected spread could be as follows: a. 20 MW: 80 units – cumulative capacity 1600 MW b. 15 MW: 60 units – cumulative capacity 900 MW c. 10 MW: 50 units – cumulative capacity 500 MW Total of 190 units with a cumulative capacity of 3000 MW.

These generators could be hooked up to the national grid system or any other suitable route as suggested by the experts How and where to get them? Ask the US government that the power issue has become one of the pivotal points for the democratic government of Pakistan. This problem could spill out into further chaos and will only go in favour of the non-democratic and anti-US forces such as Taliban and other extremists who are anxiously waiting to see the collapse of democracy. Hence, it is in the best strategic and long-term interest of the US to supply these generators on a short-term basis within the framework of Kerry-Lugar bill. This aid should be vigorously promoted in the media so that the general public is aware of the US generosity and help.

This is the best way to win the hearts and minds of the people. Who ever gets them out of this misery, will be considered no less than an angel. This will also benefit the fledgling industrial sector which is the backbone of foreign exchange receipts. Currently Pakistan’s industrial sector has suffered the most. Naturally this has brought a halt to the foreign investor, even the Pakistani expatriate investors such as me US government can work out a deal with US companies such as Caterpillar who has the capacity of providing these units on a speedy basis. This will help Caterpillar as well since they have been badly hurt by the economic down turn in the US. They can also pull some of the units from various locations in the world. The best place to look for would be Dubai since the Dubai construction market has dropped by more than 40%. The idle units could be turned around within a few weeks time for shipment to Karachi port. Some of these units could be new or used. It does not matter as long as they are capable of producing power for the next two years. What is the cost?

The cost has to be worked out with the companies such as Caterpillar etc. In my opinion whatever the cost, over the long haul it will be a win-win situation for Pakistan, US and the companies supplying these rental units .

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