PAKISTAN FLOODS: WHAT LESSONS LEARNT?
The worst-ever floods in Pakistan’s history, that started late July, have left a long trail of death and devastation, claiming over 1600 human lives, damaging infrastructure, and destroying standing crops . The economic losses caused by the calamity have pulled the country back in time. The nightmare started when the easterly monsoon system collided with the developing western system over North-western Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa on July 27. The magnitude of the calamity can be gauged from data compiled by the Federal Flood Commission of Pakistan.
According to this data the flow of rivers Swat and Kabul combined touched a new historical high of 400,000 cusecs as against the previous highest figure of 250,000 cusecs recorded in 1929.
DAMAGES & DESTRUCTION:
As the deluge from the north has ravaged a huge mass of lands ahead of falling into the Arabian Sea, large areas still remain inundated and people are looking for shelter, clean drinking water, food, clothing and medicine. Since the scale of disaster outmatches relief activities, miseries of the calamity-hit people are likely to grow and thereby exacerbate the service delivery problems, particularly when many decide to leave camps and head back to their homes or fields.
As the actual data is still being gathered, the estimates so far made available by different organizations like National Disaster Management Authority [NDMA], the United Nations and its affiliated agencies suggest that nearly 20 million people – half of them teenagers or below – have been affected by floods. Among them, over six million have no access to clean drinking water, thereby exposing most of them to waterborne diseases for months to come. A vast area of over 160,000 sq km (20 percent of the total landmass) has been flooded with complete devastation of standing crops, mainly rice, cotton and sugarcane, spread over 3.2 million hectares.
Five million people need shelter and thousands others are crying for medicines to fight flood related diseases, mainly diarrhea but others as well. Until August 24 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, diarrhea accounted for 17 percent (3807) of the total reported number of patients, while 15 percent (3,255) suffered from Acute Respiratory Tract Infection and 19 percent (4,122) developed skin problems.
Giving some estimates of the destruction, the New York Times in its August 28 edition reported that more than 5,000 miles of roads and railways have been washed away, along with some 7,000 schools and more than 400 health facilities. One estimate, in a joint study from Ball State University and the University of Tennessee has put the total cost of the flood damage at over $7 billion. That is nearly a fifth of Pakistan’s budget, almost equal to the 7.5 billion dollars
promised in an aid package (Kerry-Lugar-Burman Legislation) passed by US Congress in October 2009.
According to the latest available data, around 1.3 million houses have been destroyed or damaged. Some other key figures available with NDMA and other organizations are shown in the table:
DONORS’ SLOW RESPONSE:
Despite this horrifying death and destruction saga, both domestic and international donors have been found reluctant to donate funds for the flood-affected people. Many reasons have been cited for this apathy:
- International Recessionary Trends.
- Donors’ fatigue as a result of natural disasters in recent years like the Tsunami, Haiti, and the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistani as well as the ongoing cooperation with regard to the anti-terror.
- International community’s distrust over Pakistan government.
- Corruption of ruling elite.
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS:
The devastating floods have clearly upset all calculations the government had made for fiscal year 2010-11. The GDP growth target, for instance, had been projected at 4.5 percent but most economists are now talking of (almost) zero percent growth. It had hoped to bring down inflation from the current 12.3% to 9.5%. All this will now be impossible because of the emergence of an unusual situation in the country. The Economic Advisory Wing of the Ministry of Finance has prepared a document based on the initial loss assessments. This report says that the overall GDP growth could be zero percent in real terms while the inflation may touch as high as 25%.
Translated in simple terms, the country’s economy is likely to suffer Rs.752 billion loss during fiscal 2010-11. Even if the level of negative impact does not exceed these projections, the coming months and years are likely to bring more hardships for the common man and the economy as a whole. With the GDP growth rate coming to a naught and inflation touching 25%, it is easy to visualize the bleak economic and social scenario during the days ahead. The common man will be hit hard as the existing situation will not allow raise in his income and the cost of living will be constantly increasing. There will be less money available for development sector, which will directly impact health, education and social infrastructure development projects.
In addition to the devastation of 3.2 million hectares of standing crops, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] estimates put losses to livestock at more than 200,000,(need to check this figure) while millions of surviving animals are faced with severe food shortage. The UN has sought $5.7 million for this sector alone. However, the FAO has so far been able to mobilize $1.4 million for the livestock feedstuff and vaccine. Around 725,000 cattle in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa alone need emergency fodder and veterinary care. There have been reported 100 percent losses in poultry sector in some of the districts of the flood affected areas. Put together, these facts and figures not only show the damages but also help understand the looming economic hardships that affected people will face in the coming months and years.
Food inflation and food insecurity are two threats emanating from the devastation to the agricultural sector. Especially rural populations in the affected regions, will be far more exposed to these threats in the near to medium term because most of them not only lost crops but also physical savings such stocks of grain and seed. Implications of the situation are manifold for the country. The floods have mostly devastated those areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, FATA, Punjab and Balochistan which were already faced with high and low food insecurity problem or which were on the borderline.
Standing crops in 80 out 131 districts, faced with food insecurity problem have been washed away. Describing the level of food insecurity in these areas, Dr Abid Suleri says that during the past six years the percentage of food insecure population has reached 48.8 percent from 37 percent in the year 2003. To complicate the situation further, the deluge has destroyed those crops which either provides food to the people or foreign exchange to the country’s economy (sugar, rice and cotton). Most of the agricultural experts believe that the farmers and the land will not be able produce much during the coming Kharif season as well, depriving Pakistan of most of its export earnings in the current fiscal year.
This will put the government in a real tight situation and compel it to take hard fiscal decisions. The budgetary allocations have already started changing. The government has cut the annual Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) by 50 percent (over 3 billion dollars) which is likely to entail negative consequences for the non-affected but under-developed districts across the country. Losses to the infrastructure countrywide are colossal. Thousands of kilometers of roads, hundreds of bridges, health facilities, educational institutions, public-sector buildings and private properties have either been totally washed out or partially damaged. According to the official data of the provincial government, 245 large and small bridges have been destroyed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone. Restoration of these facilities countrywide will require billions and trillions in over the next few years. With the country’s already scarce resources plus flood-caused economic slowdown, it is easy to imagine what is going to be unfolded on the country’s economic landscape. Just to build about 500 miles of road in war-ravaged Afghanistan, the United States spent $500 million and several years, according to the website of the United States Agency for International Development. And the agency has spent $200 million to rebuild just 56 schools, 19 health facilities and other services since the momentous earthquake in 2005.
Read Report: Pakistan’s Flood Situation and Aftermath (Part-2) here
This Report “Pakistan’s Flood Situation and Aftermath” is prepared and published by Center of Research and Security Studies (http://crss.pk).
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[...] is the Second Part of Pakistan’s Flood Situation and Aftermath Report, You can read First Part here. REASONS FOR GOVERNMENT FAILURE: Some of the reasons for the government’s failure in coping [...]
We appreciate the efforts of the writer of this research report and have fully enjoyed reading this informational report. I am impressed so much that have decided to post it on my website as well. I would like to know whether I can post it as a PDF on my website or need to seek prior written permission of the writer to do so?
We have also launched a website to promote awareness about the Floods in Pakistan and help raise funds for the reported organizations like UNICEF, British Red Cross, CARE Australia etc. For further details you may visit our website.